5 Tarik Skubal Trade Packages That Could Shake Up The 2026 MLB Season
Entering the 2026 season, the Tigers may be the most interesting team in baseball.
Their 2025 season was interesting. At the 2025 all-star break, Detroit had the best record in MLB at 59-38. After the break, the Tigers went 28-37 and blew a 15.5-game lead in the AL Central thanks to a 7-17 record in September and 2-8 record in their final 10 games. In the playoffs, after advancing past the Wild Card round, they lost to the Mariners in the 15th inning of Game 5 of the American League Division Series in the longest winner-take-all game in MLB history.
The Tigers’ 2026 season will be even more interesting. Detroit decided to take the best pitcher in baseball coming off his second consecutive AL Cy Young Award, Tarik Skubal, to a salary arbitration hearing last week (https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/inside-what-goes-on-in-mlb-arbitration-hearings-how-tarik-skubals-negotiation-might-unfold/) with $13 million hanging in the balance. Like he so often does on the mound, Skubal won. In the process, he secured a $32 million salary for the 2025 season and may have broken baseball’s archaic arbitration system.
Detroit’s big free agent signing was interesting. The night after the historic Skubal arbitration hearing, the Tigers signed the top free agent pitcher on the market, Framber Valdez, to a three-year, $115 million contract. That’s a $38.33 million average annual value (AAV), which, combined with Skubal’s new salary, means that the Tigers are committing over $70 million to two starting pitchers. It’s important to note that Valdez has an opt-out after the second year of the contract, as Skubal is gone after this season. Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize, and Justin Verlander are also eligible for free agency. And Reese Olson will miss the entire season after right shoulder labral surgery.
And yet, it may be the weakest collection of pitching prospects in MLB. Kelvis Salcedo (https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/381034-kelvis-salcedo/) , who turned 20 last month and has only 23 innings of full-season baseball under his belt, is Detroit’s top pitching prospect. Salcedo checks in at 11th in BA’s Tigers Top 30 (https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/2009-detroit-tigers/prospects/) and may be 3-4 years away. That means that Valdez is the only pitcher in Detroit with more than 13 career wins who is signed beyond 2026.
The cupboard isn’t entirely empty, as Troy Melton (http://www.baseballamerica.com/players/20082-troy-melton/) , Keider Montero (https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/12811-keider-montero/) and Jackson Jobe (http://www.baseballamerica.com/players/8691-jackson-jobe/) (rehabbing from Tommy John surgery) are all on the roster, as well, but the Tigers are heading into 2027 with what will likely be a very different rotation.
And that makes what comes next with Skubal very interesting. The Tigers have said they have no plans to trade Skubal. They could take the best front of the rotation in the American League into 2026 with a plan of trying to win it all before Skubal likely leaves in free agency.
But the Tigers have to at least consider the possibility of what a trade of Skubal could bring in return. And that’s what we’re going to investigate today.
If Detroit does decide to consider moving him, the sooner the better. What the Tigers do not want is a Skubal trade in the middle of spring training that deflates the entire clubhouse, taking away their best and most identifiable player, as the team staggers toward Opening Day. If they hold Skubal till the trade deadline and he gets injured or the Tigers underperform, they will get pennies on the dollar compared to what they could get right now. If they hold him into free agency, the compensation for Skubal will be less than the Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) compensation (https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/all-98-players-eligible-to-earn-prospect-promotion-incentive-ppi-draft-picks-in-2026/) . Put another way, Detroit could get a higher pick for promoting McGonigle or Clark (if either of them won Rookie of the Year) than they would for losing Skubal.
It’s interesting to trade star players on one-year contracts. During my tenure as general manager for the Braves, we got pretty strong returns on two star-level players with one year remaining on their contracts. In November 2014, we traded Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden to the St. Louis Cardinals for Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins. Miller, of course, was flipped the very next offseason to the Diamondbacks for Dansby Swanson, Ender Inciarte and Aaron Blair, while Jenkins was traded to the Rangers in December 2016 for Luke Jackson. In December 2014, we traded Justin Upton to the San Padres for four minor league players, including Max Fried.
Trade proposals are always fun to discuss, but the goal here is to show you how front offices actually and practically evaluate trades, which side might say no to the trade and what must the Tigers get back to be compelled to move such an impactful player.
With that in mind, here are my thoughts on five potential Skubal trade proposals (plus a bonus at the end).
Yankees
Proposal: RHP Cam Schlittler (http://www.baseballamerica.com/players/21384-cam-schlittler/) , SS George Lombard Jr. (https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/9104-george-lombard/) and OF Spencer Jones (https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/4130-spencer-jones/) (or OF Jasson Dominguez (https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/8305-jasson-dominguez/) )
Who Says No: Detroit. You don’t make trades based on positional need, but the lack of young, impactful and close-to-MLB-ready pitching in the Tigers’ farm system is so acute that they will likely need two pitchers back in this trade.
Getting to Yes: Schlittler was really good, especially in last year’s playoffs (https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/cam-schlittler-just-did-something-no-ace-has-managed-in-years/) . And as a player with almost no MLB service time, he fits Detroit’s needs perfectly. Lombard also fits Detroit because all five of their top prospects—McGonigle, Clark, Bryce Rainer (https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/703562-bryce-rainer/) , Josue Briceño (https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/308869-josue-briceno/) and Jordan Yost (https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/1615083-jordan-yost/) —all hit lefthanded. The thought of McGonigle, Rainer, and Lombard in the same infield is pretty exciting.The problem is the third player. Jones or Dominguez are risk/reward outfielders, and the Tigers already have better and closer options with Riley Greene and Clark. They need long-term starting pitching badly.
Win-Win: If the Yankees send Lombard, Schlittler and, say, Will Warren, it makes a lot more sense for the Tigers. Is it a lot for the Yankees to give up for one year of Skubal? Yes, but these are the kind of trades that the Yankees used to make in the late 1990s and early 2000s when they were what the Dodgers are now. Consider a rotation of Skubal, Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, and Carlos Rodon in the playoffs. The Yankees have not won a World Series since 2009, and if they want to stop the Dodgers from being the first MLB team to three-peat since the Yankees themselves did it in 1998-2000, they need Skubal to be their CC Sabathia or Randy Johnson. New York would still keep Clarke Schmidt, Ryan Weathers, Luis Gil and top pitching prospects Elmer Rodriguez (https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/19710-elmer-rodriguez/) and Carlos Lagrange (http://www.baseballamerica.com/players/324223-carlos-lagrange/) —in addition to Cole, Fried, and Rodon—in this scenario.
Red Sox
Proposal: LHP Payton Tolle (https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/20612-payton-tolle/) , SS Franklin Arias (https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/1349509-franklin-arias/) and SS Dorian Soto (https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/1557249-dorian-soto/)
Who Says No: Detroit. Tolle, ranked 17th on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects, is one of my favorite pitching prospects. He has incredible size, stuff and performance. It’s everything you want, but he’s still a rookie and presents risk. Arias ranks 49th in the Top 100, but his upside for me is below Lombard (No. 46). And Detroit has enough middle infield depth with McGonigle, Rainer and Yost that it can afford to prioritize upside. Soto is a lottery ticket with huge upside and huge risk.
Getting to Yes: Again, this isn’t a trade for MacKenzie Gore or other good starting pitchers—this is a trade for the best pitcher in baseball. What if Boston kept Tolle in the deal and paired him with Jarren Duran? It would allow Detroit to pair Tolle with Jobe for the next 5-6 years and provide the Tigers with another impact offensive player. Maybe Detroit sends back Wenceel Perez or Jahmai Jones to even out the deal.
Win-Win: A rotation of Skubal, Garrett Crochet (the runner-up to Skubal in 2025 AL Cy Young voting), Ranger Suarez, Bryan Bello and Sonny Gray would be downright scary. Boston would still have considerable MLB-ready lefthanded starting depth even if they dealt Tolle with Connelly Early (https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/1329919-connelly-early/) , Patrick Sandoval (https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/3482-patrick-sandoval/) and Jake Bennett (https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/8245-jake-bennett/) in reserve. That said, Boston may need offense more than pitching after losing Alex Bregman in free agency.
Dodgers
Proposal: RHP Emmet Sheehan (http://www.baseballamerica.com/players/8929-emmet-sheehan/) , RHP Roki Sasaki (https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/674118-roki-sasaki/) and SS Alex Freeland (https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/18679-alex-freeland/)
Who Says No: Detroit and Los Angeles. Sasaki was the No. 1 overall prospect in last year’s Top 100. He will pitch the entire 2026 season at age 24 and won’t be arbitration-eligible until 2028. After struggling during the regular season and missing four months with a right shoulder impingement, he was electric out of the bullpen in the postseason, with only one ER in 10.2 innings pitched (0.84 ERA) and three saves as the Dodgers won the World Series. It’s electric stuff, to be sure, with high risk and high reward. If you forced me to choose between Sasaki and Tolle, I would probably take Tolle. Tolle is more physical, has no injury history and performed better in 2025. And he’s lefthanded.
The other thing is, Sasaki left Japan early to join MLB, sacrificing hundreds of millions of dollars, and chose to sign with the Dodgers for just south of $7 million total. This decision was based on the best chance to win and the best environment for his continued development. Links to Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, a strong Japanese-American community in Los Angeles and physical proximity to his homeland didn’t hurt matters, either. Detroit is basically the opposite of Los Angeles. Ultimately, it would be out of character for the Dodgers to jettison somebody like Sasaki a year after essentially winning the lottery and signing him to a contract.
Getting to Yes: Sheehan fits the Tigers as somebody who offers the ability to contribute 150-plus innings pitched at a pre-arbitration salary with multiple years of club control. The problem is, who do you pair with Sheehan if not Sasaki? Detroit needs long-term starting pitching desperately, and the Dodgers’ top four prospects (https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/2012-los-angeles-dodgers/prospects/) are all outfielders. Freeland is a nice player with a bright future but really struggled in his MLB debut at age 24 last season, hitting .190 with 35 strikeouts in 84 at-bats.
Win-Win: It would be unfair for the back-to-back World Champs to trade for the best pitcher in baseball, and they don’t really match up well anyway. Let’s move on.
Blue Jays
Proposal: RHP Trey Yesavage (https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/20967-trey-yesavage/) , SS JoJo Parker (https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/1737403-jojo-parker/) and SS Juan Sanchez (https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/1564701-juan-sanchez/)
Who Says No: Toronto. Would Skubal help Toronto win more games than Yesavage in 2026? Only the baseball gods know for certain, but the odds greatly favor Skubal. But what about after 2026? Is Skubal going to re-sign in Toronto? Are they going to give him $400-$500 million after signing Dylan Cease for seven years and $210 million and giving Vladimir Guerrero $500 million before that?
The better question is, how do you trade somebody like Yesavage? Despite having only 14 days of MLB service time, he was arguably Toronto’s best pitcher in last year’s playoffs. Yesavage set the all-time rookie record with 12 strikeouts over seven innings in Game 5 of last year’s World Series, breaking the mark set in 1949 by Don Newcombe. His 10 strikeouts through his first five innings matched Sandy Koufax from Game 1 of the 1963 World Series. Yesavage is not arbitration-eligible until 2029 and remains under club control until 2032.
If you’re Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins, no matter how much you love Skubal, you cannot trade Yesavage. The Blue Jays have the talent to win the World Series this year, but, after last year’s magical run, face significantly less pressure to win in 2026. Expect Toronto, with Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber eligible for free agency after this season, to be at the front of the line in the bidding for Skubal next offseason. A front three of Skubal, Cease, and Yesavage would be nuts.
Getting to Yes: Not going to happen.
Win-Win: Not possible.
Mets
Proposal: RHP Nolan McLean (https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/8593-nolan-mclean/) , LHP Jonathan Santucci (https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/20935-jonathan-santucci/) and SS Elian Peña (https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/1557295-elian-pena/)
Who Says No: Nobody.When Steve Cohen bought the Mets in November 2020, he said he would be “disappointed” if the Mets didn’t win a World Series within 3-5 years. Well, the Mets haven’t been to a World Series under his ownership and didn’t even make the playoffs last year. This offseason they traded away Brandon Nimmo and saw Pete Alonso and Edwin Diaz leave as free agents. Yes, they traded for Marcus Semien, Freddy Peralta and Luis Robert Jr. and signed free agents Bo Bichette, Devin Williams, and Jorge Polanco. The team is better, but they are still short when it comes to impact starting pitching.
Enter Skubal in a contract year, toting back-to-back Cy Young Awards as he walks into the clubhouse. How much more valuable does Peralta become moving down a level and becoming your No. 2 starting pitcher? And how would that 1-2 combo look in a short playoff series? It may not be Randy Johnson-Curt Schilling in 2001, but, more so than any other person on the planet, Skubal gives the Mets the best chance to beat the Dodgers in a playoff series. And the Mets could sign him long term, because why not?
Getting to Yes: McLean is the key. The No. 8 overall and top overall pitching prospect on BA’s Top 100, he’s already a middle rotation stalwart and could finish the year pitching in front of Peralta. McLean throws six above-average pitches for strikes and finished the season in Queens going
